4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 36

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) 15-K.Fairbairn 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.87 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP