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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 24

Tennessee Titans 0 – Houston Texans 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 6-J.Slye 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +1.02 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.64 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.08 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model