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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 54

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:14) 57-B.Fisher reported in as eligible. 27-W.Marks up the middle to HOU 48 for 2 yards (28-Q.Diggs, 33-C.Gray).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.79 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model