4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 53

Houston Texans 6 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 6-T.Townsend punts 43 yards to TEN 10, Center-40-A.Brinkman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.89 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP