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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 35

Seattle Seahawks 20 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 5-J.Myers 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson. ** Injury Update: ARI-93-C.Campbell has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.74 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 45, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model