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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 1 at the 48

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:07) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet right tackle to ARI 48 for no gain (2-Ma.Wilson, 27-A.Davis-Gaither).

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.72 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model