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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 87

Seattle Seahawks 17 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 4-M.Dickson punts 49 yards to ARI 38, Center-41-C.Stoll, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.70 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 87, worth -5.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 45, worth -2.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model