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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 53

Arizona Cardinals 3 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(6:33) 12-B.Gillikin punts 40 yards to SEA 13, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-T.Horton.

The Three Options

GO -0.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.42 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 53, worth -2.85 EP
KICK -1.31 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 15, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model