4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 15 at the 66

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:09) 4-M.Dickson punts 54 yards to ARI 12, Center-41-C.Stoll. 4-G.Dortch to ARI 27 for 15 yards (28-N.Pritchett).

The Three Options

GO -2.00 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 66, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 24, worth -1.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model