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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(:01) 4-C.McLaughlin 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.91 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.32 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model