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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 40

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Philadelphia Eagles 31

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 4-C.McLaughlin 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.13 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model