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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 17 at the 67

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson ran ob at TB 17 for 13 yards (36-C.Latu; 21-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -1.98 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.74 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 67, worth -3.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model