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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 10-B.Mann punts 36 yards to TB 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.24 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.63 EP