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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 19 at the 77

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 10-B.Mann punts 63 yards to TB 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 19-K.Johnson pushed ob at PHI 40 for 46 yards (83-K.Granson).

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model