4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 74

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 21

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 52 yards to PHI 22, Center-86-E.Deckers. 2-J.Dotson to PHI 25 for 3 yards (98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.51 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 32, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model