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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 9-R.Dixon punts 18 yards to PHI 43, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on PHI-34-P.Nickerson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 43.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model