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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 10 at the 18

Miami Dolphins 24 – New York Jets 13

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 47-R.Patterson 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.99 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model