Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 69

New York Jets 13 – Miami Dolphins 24

(7:13) 14-A.McNamara punts 43 yards to MIA 26, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-82-A.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.59 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.01 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.68 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model