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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 43
New York Jets 3 – Miami Dolphins 17
What Actually Happened
(9:36) 7-J.Fields scrambles left end for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.51 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.09 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP
KICK
-1.10 EP
- 40% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
- 60% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT
-0.34 EP
- Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.34 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
