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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 19 – Buffalo Bills 28

What Actually Happened

(5:42) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-S.Rattler pass short left to 41-A.Kamara to BUF 41 for 2 yards (27-T.White).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -1.62 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT +0.25 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model