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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 49

Buffalo Bills 21 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 10-K.Shakir to 50 for -1 yards (96-C.Granderson).

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.55 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.26 EP
KICK -1.82 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.30 EP
PUNT -0.94 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model