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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 36

New Orleans Saints 7 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 19-B.Grupe 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.04 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model