Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 74

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

(1:31) 5-B.Anger punts 51 yards to GB 23, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-M.Golden ran ob at GB 32 for 9 yards (40-H.Luepke).

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.96 EP
55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model