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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 45

Green Bay Packers 13 – Dallas Cowboys 2

What Actually Happened

(5:59) 19-D.Whelan punts 40 yards to DAL 5, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by GB-55-K.Enagbare.

The Three Options

GO -0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 45, worth -2.43 EP
KICK -0.72 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 12, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.50 EP