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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 84

Dallas Cowboys 2 – Green Bay Packers 13

What Actually Happened

(8:42) 5-B.Anger punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-44-T.Sieg. 0-M.Golden to GB 40 for 2 yards (35-M.Liufau).

The Three Options

GO -1.84 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.40 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 42, worth -1.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model