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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 62

Denver Broncos 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-48-M.Fraboni, Touchback. PENALTY on CIN-25-T.Brooks, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CIN 20.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.09 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 62, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 21, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.54 EP