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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 21

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 8-R.Rehkow punts 47 yards to DEN 15, Center-46-W.Wagner, fair catch by 19-M.Mims. PENALTY on CIN-37-P.Jules, Fair Catch Interference, 0 yards, enforced at DEN 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.98 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP