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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 56

Denver Broncos 21 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(12:44) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 42 yards to CIN 14, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 15-C.Jones ran ob at CIN 30 for 16 yards (45-N.Adkins; 50-G.Wallow).

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 56, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 17, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model