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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 9 at the 79

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 8-R.Rehkow punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-W.Wagner. 19-M.Mims to DEN 20 for 4 yards (37-P.Jules).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model