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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 36

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 74-J.Taylor and 66-M.Caliendo reported in as eligible. 29-K.Hunt up the middle to BAL 34 for 2 yards (91-B.Okoye).

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model