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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 45

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(7:58) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 1-X.Worthy to BAL 41 for 4 yards (44-M.Humphrey).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.34 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 45, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.63 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model