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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 35

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 37

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 15-C.Rush pass short left to 4-Z.Flowers to KC 35 for no gain (22-T.McDuffie).

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.70 EP
KICK +0.29 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -2.28 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model