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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 15

Kansas City Chiefs 30 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +3.22 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.07 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model