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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 27 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:10) 7-H.Butker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +1.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.37 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +1.68 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model