Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 15 at the 79

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 6

(6:58) 11-J.Stout punts 50 yards to KC 29, Center-46-N.Moore. 81-N.Remigio pushed ob at KC 44 for 15 yards (32-T.Simpson).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.74 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 79, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model