4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 5

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Baltimore Ravens 7

What Actually Happened

(10:03) 7-H.Butker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.

The Three Options

GO +2.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 5, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.87 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP