Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 59

New England Patriots 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:21) 17-B.Baringer punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Ashby, Touchback. PENALTY on PIT-26-B.Echols, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.70 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
63% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.86 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model