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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 40

New England Patriots 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 10-D.Maye scrambles right end ran ob at PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen).

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.86 EP
KICK -0.09 EP
  • 58% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.51 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model