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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 43

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 14

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 3-C.Waitman punts 25 yards to NE 18, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.60 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 12, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model