4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 16

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short middle to 85-H.Henry for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.10 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.89 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model