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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 46

New England Patriots 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 32-T.Henderson left end to PIT 44 for 2 yards (97-Ca.Heyward). PENALTY on PIT-51-N.Herbig, Illegal Use of Hands, 5 yards, enforced at PIT 44.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.00 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model