4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 14 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 3-C.Waitman punts 42 yards to NE 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.96 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model