4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 36

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short left to 17-J.Waddle ran ob at BUF 21 for 15 yards (9-T.Rapp).

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.84 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.36 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model