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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 69

Buffalo Bills 21 – Miami Dolphins 14

What Actually Happened

(3:12) 16-C.Johnston punts 47 yards to MIA 22, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 6-M.Washington to MIA 33 for 11 yards (26-Ty.Johnson; 22-R.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.92 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 69, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 27, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model