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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(5:40) 16-J.Bailey punts 43 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 29-B.Codrington.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.55 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model