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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 6 at the 57

New York Giants 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles up the middle to NYG 45 for 2 yards (54-L.Chenal).

The Three Options

GO +0.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.12 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 57, worth -0.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 17, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model