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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 10 at the 10

New York Giants 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short middle to 84-T.Johnson [90-C.Omenihu].

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.75 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 10, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.38 EP