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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 30

New York Giants 9 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

What Actually Happened

(3:33) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 17-W.Robinson to KC 4 for 26 yards (30-C.Roland-Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 40, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model