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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 54

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – New York Giants 6

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 14-M.Araiza punts 43 yards to NYG 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 80-G.Olszewski to NYG 20 for 9 yards (41-J.Winchester).

The Three Options

GO +1.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.61 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 54, worth -2.80 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 16, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.56 EP