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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 4 at the 48

New York Giants 6 – Kansas City Chiefs 16

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 12-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to KC 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 81-N.Remigio to KC 19 for 4 yards (23-A.Green).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.05 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model